Obama and Wright

Obama denounced Reverend Wright's most recent statements today:



He definitely needed to do this and I think he did it well, by addressing specific comments Wright made. A few perspectives here.

"Body of War"

Tonight, Dems screened "Body of War," one of the most recent anti-Iraq, anti-war documents out there. And, honestly, it was one of the better documentaries on the war that I've seen (and trust me, I've seen quite a few).

Chronicling the story of Tomas Young, an Iraq war veteran shot in the spinal cord just five days after he was deployed to Iraq, "Body of War," does not try to pull a Michael-Moore esque stunt and reveal hidden secrets and motives about conservative ineptitudes. It simply follows Young from his release from rehab to his wedding to his divorce to his growing role in Iraq Veterans Against the War. In other words, it provides a very personal and honest approach to life after Iraq. Interspersed in Young's story are the comments and rhetoric of various Senators and Representatives leading up to the 2002 Resolution to invade Iraq. Though both sides of the aisle are shown, two things stick out. One, just how ridiculous it was to make the President the one with the power to declare war, essentially depriving Congress of that same power. And second is the absurdity of those who argued for the invasion of Iraq. They all said the same thing. They all used the same phrases, the same arguments that invoked fear and were built upon nothing. Though this revelation is about as surprising as the recent NY Times exposure of Pentagon control of the press about Guantanamo, it's very striking to hear the remarks in a row, made by many different Congressmen across many different days. (For an accurate idea of what this propaganda sounded like when strung together, watch this montage of quotes from Lost. Seriously.) Serving as a breath of fresh air amongst this absurdity are the dissenting politicians that have become the "Immortal 23" or the Senators who voted "nay," including Senators Byrd, Boxer, Leahy, Kennedy, Wellstone and Jeffords.

I'm glad Dems showed this screening for several reasons, but namely because it reminded me that the war is an important issue. A Vermonter who is part of Iraq Veterans Against the War (a man himself not much older than 25) came up to me afterwards and said, "I was very surprised when I found out the College Democrats were screening this." His comment helped served as a reality check that, even though voters may be saying the economy is the most important issue, the Democratic Party is not just about one issue or not just about one candidate. It has a robust platform and represents a wide variety of issues. I think this perspective is important to keep in mind as we get even deeper into this election cycle, starting with the Iraq Debate on May 5th.

Anyway, now that we've paid for the requisition of the film, we will likely be showing this again in the near future and I highly recommend that people come.

An alternative prospective from Middlebury Confessional...

Original post: "I don't understand when people at Middlebury choose majors they don't like."

Commenter: "Your inability to understand is called privilege."

Race, Class, Merit, and Higher Education

For those who attended this past Saturday's discussion group on the topic of affirmative action, attending the John Hamilton Fulton Lecture to be held this Wednesday (April 30th) in Mead Chapel would be a great continuation of our dialogue.  Lani Guinier will be speaking.  She's the first tenured black female tenured professor at Harvard Law, and will  be speaking about "how wealth became merit, class became race, and college education became a gift from the poor to the rich" (adapted from the Institutional Planning and Diversity email).  

A quick wikipedia search tells me that Ms. Guinier has proposed to recast the affirmative action system into something she calls "confirmative action," which "ties diversity to admissions criteria for all students, whatever their race, gender, or ethnic background--including people of color, working-class whites, and even children of privilege."  It seems that she will employ the argument that diversity contributes value to universities, but I'm sure it will be more nuanced than that.  For those who attend, we'll need to summarize and discuss this talk at the next discussion group.  Just wanted to give everyone a heads up.

The Obama Electability Argument

In a great post this week, Markos Moulitsas, founder of DailyKos, takes a deeper look at the Clinton campaign's argument to superdelegates that Clinton is more electable. Apparently they have been circulating maps, based on (the unreliable predictions) of current polling data, to project the electoral college for Obama vs. McCain and Clinton vs. McCain.   

And yes, by this measure, if the election were held today Clinton would win by 50 evs, Obama by only 15. However, a closer look at the data tells a different story. Look at this:

While Clinton's "strong base" is slightly larger, Obama holds onto the weaker blue states better. And while the reddest states stay red against either Dem Obama puts more light red states in play. 

Now, I don't think electability arguments should be the central issue in this campaign; Americans continue to trust Democrats over Republ

icans in handling the economy and the war by double digits.

But as the media continues to obsess over the Clinton spin that "Obama can't win the big swing states" it takes an injection of statistical realism like this to remember why so many Democratic activists have been supporting Obama from the beginning: he represents a new Democratic party not drawn along the same old electoral lines that narrowly lost us the White House in 2000 and 2004. 

We cannot settle for the same old 50.01 percent when we are facing challenges that will require a  powerful majority movement to solve them. By putting more states in play Obama offers not only the possibility of a breakout win in the electoral college, but also a better chance to increase our majorities in the Senate and House. He runs much better in states like Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, Alaska and Oregon, where we have our biggest Senate races going. 

As Frank Rich notes this morning, this moment, with two rival camps slugging it out for the future of the democratic party, is as good as it's gonna get for John McCain. 

And perhaps to those unable to see beyond this anxious moment, the shallow, fearful electability arguments mongered by Terry McCaullife and the Clintons hold some water. 

But the rest of us, who actually care about the future of the Democratic party at every level of government, should breathe easy and indeed, be excited about the each day more inevitable prospect of an Obama led coalition. 

Strike Three..... She's Outta There

Maybe you weren't convinced by my post below that the nomination is over. My analysis is clearly tainted by my personal belief that Obama should be the nominee. You, Matthew Dickinson, want some hard numbers. Well I don't got 'em, but my friends at TPM do. 

And I gotta say, not looking good for the McCauliffites.  Watch:

Ouch. Plus, by the look of the latest polls, there's no way Clinton's gonna get the NC-cancelling win in Indiana that she needs. There is light at the end of the tunnel. May 7th, everybody. May 7th.

My Kind of Democrat

"When too many Americans don't vote or participate, some see apathy and despair. I see disappointment and even outrage. And I believe that out of this frustration can come hope and action"  

-Paul Wellstone

I've spent the morning watching old videos of Senator Paul Wellstone of Minnesota. He was a short, balding, passionate fighter for progressive values and the first politician I ever looked up to.  Just watch a few minutes of him speaking and you get the picture. Issues like health care, education, and farm policy got him pumped up and ready for a fight. Watch these few clips, and imagine what our party would be like if we all talked like Paul. 

When he died in a plane crash just before the 2002 election, I went over to the University of Minnesota campus for the memorial service, which was held in the hockey arena, the biggest space on campus. But I couldn't get, in, it was overflowing. I went to the giant lecture hall where they were screening the service on closed caption television. It was overflowing. The whole state was there to express their grief.

That's what the Democratic party should strive for. To be the party that is close to the ground, that people feel ownership of. Half the country doesn't vote. And I agree with Wellstone that that is a sign of outrage. And by continually setting that outrage aside and aiming for the head instead of the heart, Democrats breed apathy. When we change that, we win and win big.

Obama's Race Speech

Here are my thoughts on Obama's race speech. Check it out, yo.

Hold On a Little Longer

The nomination is over.

Barack Obama is the nominee. 

John McCain is the enemy, not Hillary Clinton. 

Repeat these simple affirmations to yourself each morning, as you brush your teeth and each night before you go to bed. It can be hard to remember that they're true in this slow motion waiting game.  

Pennsylvania, maddeningly, changes nothing. Obama still has a small, but insurmountable lead in pledged delegates, and a small but nearly insurmountable lead in the popular vote. This is not a landslide win, but it's a clear one, and Pennsylvania only delayed the day until we can officially recognize it. If Obama wins Indiana, that day is May 7th. If not, that day is June 4th. But the day is coming. Hillary shouldn't pull out. It has been a very long and yes, very close campaign, which has highlighted the huge problems with our primary system. Florida and Michigan shouldn't have moved their primaries. But under the rules, Obama has won.

Hillary should get back to what she does best: talking policy. She should be pushing Obama to accept her superior Health Care Plan. She should be using these weeks to shape the Democratic platform for the fall, much as John Edwards, with a way lower profile, was able to frame the nomination contest. At least until Mark Penn ripped the frame off and threw it away.

Americans may not have been excited about John Edwards, but now they are dying for his kind of campaign, the kind that talks about a new vision for the country. That tackles issues head on with passion and gusto. And that's the kind of campaign that would lay the groundwork for a broad coalition that will deliver our party the White House, and the government for years to come. Hillary could and should be a great leader of that movement, writing legislation and leading congress

But instead of making the campaign about the future, the Clintons are still trying to pull off a coup by Karl Rove style hatchet job as the Times editors write this morning: 

Ultimately we Democrats have the same goals, we're having a.... ahem... bitter.... fight about how best to acheive them. Obama really does want universal health care, even though his plan to do it was poorly thrown together. Hillary really does want to get our troops out of Iraq, even though she too often talks like a neocon. Americans want those things. John McCain does not. Democrats have to talk that way. Obama did it in his speech last night. Hillary is still campaigning in the weird, 2002-like dimension where Charlie Gibson and George Stephanopolous live.

Attacking McCain, United Democrats Present Bold Platform

We can make that the storyline tomorrow. But we have to move on from this fight. 

It was close, but it is over.

Quick thoughts on Pennsylvania

It's interesting just how dramatic the demographic breakdowns are. As Middlebury professor Dickinson suggested in an email to some of his students, bittergate didn't really matter, what ultimately mattered where voter demographics. This race is very much based on personality, ethnicity and gender, not policy. To play devil's advocate for these Pennsylvania voters, however, it could be argued that since there isn't much difference in the policy of these two candidates, what really distinguished them is personality, and yes gender and ethnicity.

Regardless, Obama's lead seems to be insurmountable and I'm not saying Clinton should drop out, just that the attacks need to stop. Using fear is just setting up McCain for November.

Finally, I'm also afraid (as everyone is) that this will keep going until the convention.

Josh Marshall puts the results of Pennsylvania most clearly:

I'd say the real story is that this leaves us basically where we were.

So when will this end?