The Obama Electability Argument

In a great post this week, Markos Moulitsas, founder of DailyKos, takes a deeper look at the Clinton campaign's argument to superdelegates that Clinton is more electable. Apparently they have been circulating maps, based on (the unreliable predictions) of current polling data, to project the electoral college for Obama vs. McCain and Clinton vs. McCain.   

And yes, by this measure, if the election were held today Clinton would win by 50 evs, Obama by only 15. However, a closer look at the data tells a different story. Look at this:

While Clinton's "strong base" is slightly larger, Obama holds onto the weaker blue states better. And while the reddest states stay red against either Dem Obama puts more light red states in play. 

Now, I don't think electability arguments should be the central issue in this campaign; Americans continue to trust Democrats over Republ

icans in handling the economy and the war by double digits.

But as the media continues to obsess over the Clinton spin that "Obama can't win the big swing states" it takes an injection of statistical realism like this to remember why so many Democratic activists have been supporting Obama from the beginning: he represents a new Democratic party not drawn along the same old electoral lines that narrowly lost us the White House in 2000 and 2004. 

We cannot settle for the same old 50.01 percent when we are facing challenges that will require a  powerful majority movement to solve them. By putting more states in play Obama offers not only the possibility of a breakout win in the electoral college, but also a better chance to increase our majorities in the Senate and House. He runs much better in states like Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, Alaska and Oregon, where we have our biggest Senate races going. 

As Frank Rich notes this morning, this moment, with two rival camps slugging it out for the future of the democratic party, is as good as it's gonna get for John McCain. 

And perhaps to those unable to see beyond this anxious moment, the shallow, fearful electability arguments mongered by Terry McCaullife and the Clintons hold some water. 

But the rest of us, who actually care about the future of the Democratic party at every level of government, should breathe easy and indeed, be excited about the each day more inevitable prospect of an Obama led coalition.